The Language of Uncertainty
Intelligence analysis rarely deals in certainties. The future is inherently unpredictable, and information is often incomplete or ambiguous. Estimative language is the tool analysts use to communicate their level of confidence in their assessments and the probability of future events.
The Scale of Estimative Language
Most intelligence communities use a standardized scale of words and phrases to convey probability. While the exact percentages may vary, the hierarchy is generally consistent:
- Almost Certainly (95-99%): The highest level of confidence.
- Very Likely (80-95%): A strong belief that an event will happen.
- Likely (60-80%): More likely to happen than not.
- Even Chance (45-55%): Roughly equal probability of occurring or not.
- Unlikely (20-40%): Less likely to happen than not.
- Very Unlikely (5-20%): A strong belief that an event will not happen.
- Remote (1-5%): The lowest level of confidence.
Conclusion
The disciplined use of estimative language is a hallmark of professional intelligence analysis. It provides decision-makers with a clear and consistent understanding of the uncertainties involved, enabling them to make more informed risk assessments.
Related Topics
What's Next?
Continue your intelligence analysis journey with these recommended learning paths